Aim. The purpose of this study is to identify trends in climate and natural environment changes in Yakutia based on instrumental observations and to compare them with the perception of these processes by the local population. Methodology. The procedure and methods included the analysis of data from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information and field research in the Arctic regions in 2003-2020 based on statistical, comparative-geographical, cartographic methods and expedition research, including the local people’s survey. Results. An analysis of instrumental data on climate change in Yakutia is presented - thespatial patterns of trends in mean annual and mean summer temperatures, sums of annual precipitation and precipitation of the cold period. Warming takes place mainly due to the increase of the off-season temperatures. Permafrost soils are subject to such changes as a rise of the active layer thickness, which are not yet catastrophic, but require constant monitoring. There is a link between the results of scientific research and changes recorded by the local population. Local observations of climate change in Yakutia are similar to the results obtained in other regions of Siberia. Research implications. The analysis of the data set in Yakutia complements the picture of climate change in region of study and gives an idea of the perception of these changes by the local population. The joint use of scientific data and observations of local populations is important in elaboration of local climate change adaptation programs.

Aim. The purpose is to reveal the dependence of the long-term dynamics of the Ampeliscidae on the combined effect of pollution of the feeding area of the Okhotsk-Korean gray whale population by oil hydrocarbons and temperature rise. Methodology. We have studied research papers on the number and behavior of gray whales under anthropogenic impact, as well as production reports of oil companies. The dynamics of the temperature of surface water masses and the concentration of petroleum hydrocarbons are analyzed. Correlations between oil pollution, temperature changes and the number of amphipods are assessed. The analysis of correlations is performed using the Pearson correlation coefficient, which makes it possible to determine the proportionality of the variability of two variables in one sample. Results. Climate change, along with environmental pollution, can synergistically affect organisms, increasing the adverse effects not only on the food supply of the gray whale, but also on the ecosystem as a whole. On the basis of statistical data from production reports, a correlation has been revealed between long-term temperature dynamics, oil pollution of the whale feeding area and the number of amphipods. The analysis shows a significant correlation with both the temperature dynamics and the change in the concentration of petroleum hydrocarbons. Research implications. The obtained data can be used to substantiate the necessary mitigation of anthropogenic impact on the ecosystems of the water area, which are feeding grounds for rare species. The paper is significant for the further development of environmental protection recommendations for oil companies operating in the area.

Aim. The purpose is to study the general ecological state of the lake area bays of the Volgograd reservoir and the formation of abrasion-accumulative jumpers in its entrance gates. Methodology. Materials of the field research of the bays from 2019-2020 and archival data from 2008 and 2010-2016 are analyzed. The main methods of the research are field (sampling for hydrochemical and granulometric analysis, bathymetric survey, and visual assessment) and analytical ones (hydrochemical analysis of water samples, granulometric analysis of sediments, and cartographic method). Results. We have revealed that there is a relationship between the ecological state of the bays of the lake area of the Volgograd reservoir and the process of the formation of abrasion-accumulative jumpers in its entrance gates. Deterioration of the ecological state is observed in all the bays in question. Closed bays (especially small) demonstrate sings of ecosystem degradation: accumulation of large amounts of nutrients, increase in the concentration of the main ions in water (hydrocarbonates, chlorides, sulfates, sodium, potassium, and sometimes calcium), overgrowth, deposition, siltation (including organogenic), and dissolved oxygen deficiency in the bottom horizon (at a depth 2-10 m). Other signs of degradation are lack of signs of aquatic organisms activity, warming up of the water mass to the bottom, the appearance of a putrefactive odor in the bay, mass distribution of phytoplankton, and increase in the area of the shallow zone of the bay. The relationship is found between ecological state of the reservoir and volume and depth of the bay. Research implications. The research results contribute to the practical understanding of the processes occurring in the natural aquatic complex of the Volgograd reservoir, namely the process of the formation and development of abrasion-accumulative jumpers in the bay’s entrance gates.

Aim. The purpose of this work is to put forward proposals for organizing a system of socio-economic development in the South of the Tyumen region for the formation of an inter-municipal balance, with the invariance of the existing regional and municipal economic mechanisms of interaction. Methodology. Rural settlements are compared using the published data of the Federal Tax Service and Rosstat, both among themselves and in retrospect (using materials from the List of settlements of the Ural region, 1926). The spatial differentiation of socio-economic processes is performed by using geoinformation mapping, which makes it possible to compare the boundaries of rural settlements with the objects of the road network and to correlate the system of organization of rural settlements in time. The research procedure is based on comparing information about various territorial units with each other in order to search for problems and address directions for their resolution in the context of modern socio-economic development of the south of the Tyumen region. Results. Based on the results of the study, we have proposed directions of socio-economic development of rural areas in the region, taking into account the existing regional and inter-municipal specifics: environmental, historical and territorial imperatives. Their use makes it possible to solve the problems of territorial development existing in the region (polarization of the population in terms of material income, decrease in production activity, deterioration of the quality of the natural environment) and to intensify the use of existing competitive potential (the presence of economic ties within the framework of a single Tyumen region, natural resource potential, and successful practices). The proposed imperatives can be introduced into strategic documents of regional and local development, both in terms of identifying priority areas and in forming strategic planning based on the choice of rural settlements as a focus of attention. The use of a long series of observations allows one to single out proposals as a long-term trend, which neutralizes the influence of the COVID-19 crisis period. Research implications. The research results can be introduced into the practice of state and municipal strategic planning in the Tyumen region. The use of a rural settlement as a management unit makes it possible to detail and differentiate territorial management within the boundaries of municipal districts and the region as a whole. Possible implementation mechanisms can be regional and district strategic planning based on the application of these imperatives: allocation of historical production facilities for settlements, territorial features, achievable results, and environmental benchmarks. Their binding to the terrain will make it possible to avoid in regional strategic documents the practice of generalizing the problems of the three subjects of the Tyumen region.

Aim. We study the problems and prospects for the development of transport infrastructure of the Makhachkala agglomeration in the medium and long term. Methodology. Traffic flows on the territory of the agglomeration are studied on the basis of statistical data, information from state authorities and local authorities, reflecting certain parameters of the transport system of the Makhachkala agglomeration. The work relies on the following methods: analysis, comparative-geographical, statistical and cartographic. Results. The criteria for the allocation of the boundaries of the Makhachkala agglomeration are determined, taking into account the transport and geographical factor. The modern features and problems of the functioning of transport in all four municipalities of the agglomeration are highlighted. The general and particular problems of the development of transport infrastructure for the future are discussed, taking into account the local, regional and all-Russian specifics of territorial transport planning for individual municipalities of the Makhachkala agglomeration. Research implications. The results of the work were used to create a territorial planning scheme for the Makhachkala agglomeration. In the future, the territory of the Makhachkala agglomeration will be more than 3 thousand km2 (much more than its territory in 2021). The center of the agglomeration transport system will shift and will be located on the border of Makhachkala and Kaspiysk. The development of transport infrastructure will be aimed at improving the internal connectivity of the territory and increasing the general mobility of the population. The economy of the region will directly depend on the implementation of federal transport projects in the field of road and sea transport. Implementation of the proposed measures is possible only with the creation of coordination bodies for agglomeration management.

Aim. We develop a universal model based on the theory of deterministic chaos to describe the development of the ecological and medical system (EMS). Methodology. The description of EMS using the theory of deterministic chaos assumes the already existing Feigenbaum mathematical model to be “equipped” with measurable environmental and medical values that have statistical meaning. In the environmental medical system, there are both random factors associated with the uncertainty of the level of pollution of the environment, and deterministic ones associated with ordered human activity. It is necessary to identify the random component - the law of distribution of the level of environmental pollution by concentrations of pollutants - and correlate it with the deterministic component (maximum permissible concentration), which provides a safe level of certainty. The Feigenbaum model modified for the environmental-medical system allows one to assess the current instability of EMS at a known level of environmental-medical entropy, as well as make a prediction of its development over 100 years with a change in technological load. Results. To describe EMS, new concepts of environmental-medical entropy and environmental-medical risk have been introduced. Depending on the level of environmental degradation, three fundamental periods of EMS development are identified: dynamic mode with deterministic connections of entropy and stability of the environmental-medical system; a transitional regime with two subsequent crises (bifurcations); AND a chaotic regime with rapidly recurring crises, but with the existence of a window of opportunity for the emergence of a new population. Ranking of states of ecological-medical system according to ranks of environmental degradation and instability of EMS (from absolutely stable state R=0 to absolutely chaotic R=1) is made. Examples of EMS stability change at different levels of man-made environmental load are presented. It is shown that at the level of ecological-medical entropy S≤1,1 and the level of its instability R≤0,1 the system is in the rank of normal and self-recovers over time; at 1.1