Low-carbon development strategies of the BRICS+ countries: analysis in the context of LULUCF sector

Aim. To identify similarities and differences between the Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategies of the BRICS+ countries in terms of their thematic blocks, with a particular focus on climate change mitigation measures within the Land use, Land-use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector and their relationship to the land use of countries.

Methodology. The study employed quantitative and qualitative content analysis, as well as comparative and statistical data processing techniques. Documents from the strategic long-term low-carbon development strategy, namely low-carbon development strategies and nationally determined contributions from BRICS+ countries were analyzed, along with statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and data on land use and its dynamics for the period 2012-2022. National data on greenhouse gas emissions, including those from the LULUCF sector, were also analyzed based on information from the Climate Action Tracker and Climate Watch Data.

Results. Based on the approach adopted by the Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and according to the results of content analysis, thematic blocks and their roles are identified in each of the strategies considered. It has been revealed that the documents are highly individualized and vary in volume, but the order of topics covered is similar. There is an emphasis on the section on climate mitigation measures developed for each sector of the economy.

An analysis of the characteristics of the land use structure (data on categories of “forest area” and “arable land” (% from country area) allowed us to group the countries into four clusters, for which further consideration of mitigation measures in the LULUCF sector is proposed. According to the Strategy documents, mechanisms such as forest protection, af­forestation and reduction of deforestation are identified as universal measures for countries with a high forest cover, such as Russia and Brazil. For countries with a relatively large proportion of arable land, such as India and Turkey, as well as Russia, measures to reduce carbon emissions from agriculture, control erosion and prevent fires on agricultural lands are outlined. Some countries, depending on their natural characteristics, plan to imple­ment individual measures to mitigate carbon emissions, including assessing the carbon balance of different ecosystems, such as inland waters and wetlands in Russia, and coastal ecosystems with mangrove forests and marine grasslands in the United Arab Emirates, China and India, among others. It was concluded that all the countries reviewed, except for Egypt and Malaysia, have a more or less comprehensive approach to how they will act in the land use, land-use change and forestry sector in order to contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.

Research implications. The results of the study allow us to draw conclusions about the variety of climate change mitigation measures proposed by BRICS+ countries in relation to the structure and dynamics of their land use. The findings can be useful in optimizing international cooperation and exchange of best practices between countries.

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