PATH DEPENDENCE EFFECT IN AGRICULTURE OF DEPRESSIVE TERRITORIES

Abstract

Aim. The paper studies the manifestation of the ‘path dependence effect’ in agriculture in depressed regions (for example, Smolensk region) based on the examination of factors of various origins and the possibilities of overcoming the inheritance of historical development. Methodology. The analysis of the occurrence and factors of the formation of the ‘path dependence effect’ in agriculture of one of the depressed regions is carried out. For the forming factors, new indicators of the growing degree days are calculated, which make it possible to predict the emergence of new areas of agricultural specialization, based on changes in the agroclimatic potential. For determining factors, a retrospective analysis of the formation of agricultural systems is carried out, which ensures the stability of some industries till the present days. The study relies on the comparative analysis as well as on typological, comparative historical and factor analysis. Results. The important role and the need to use the results of inheritance from historical development to interpret the current state of territorial systems is shown. The influence of the forming and determining factors of the ‘path dependence effect’ is established. It is revealed that the inheritance of emerging agricultural systems depends largely on the natural component, and a change in this factor does not entail a change in specialization. The ‘path dependence effect’ in agriculture is mainly related to the socio-economic component of development. The increasing influence of previous development in the economies of depressed regions is demonstrated. The vectors of the possible development of the territory based on innovative directions are proposed. Research implications. Directions for changing the trajectory of the development of the agricultural industry in the conditions of a depressed economy are suggested.