POSSIBILITY OF PREDICTING AN ANOMALOUSLY HOT SUMMER BY TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS OF WINTER-SPRING PERIOD

Abstract

An anomalously hot summer prediction facilitates
timely planning of events that prevent considerable
damage to agricultural production. In this article we have
analyzed and described by polynomials of sixth degree the
dynamics of average decade temperature anomalies in the
unusually hot 1972, 1988, 1999 and 2010 years using the
data of Moscow meteorological stations as an example. In
these years the common temperature characteristics of the
winter-spring period were a sharp cold snap in late January,
April or at the beginning of May, and an abnormally warm
early spring period. Synchronism revealed in the dynamics
of temperature allows us to consider these year-analogs and
predict the possibility of occurrence of an anomalously hot
summer period.