Transformation of the Altai Republic Socio-Ecological Systems in the Context of Climate Change

Aim. The purpose of the study is to identify patterns of territorial differentiation of the transformation processes of socio-ecological systems (SES) of the Altai Republic caused by climate change and the perceptions of the local population about them. Special attention is paid to comparing objective climate trends and subjective perceptions of local communities that influence their adaptive behavior.

Methodology. The study is based on a comprehensive approach that includes statistical analysis of long-term climate data and surveys of the local population regarding their views on climate change and adaptation to it. An analysis of linear trends in temperature and precipitation based on long-term data (1991–2023) from 11 weather stations in the Altai Republic was performed. The field stage is represented by an in-depth interview of 162 respondents in 33 localities, covering all physical and geographical provinces of the region. The identified narratives and adaptive practices were compared with objective climate monitoring data, which allowed us to establish areas of consistency and discrepancies between perception and reality.

Results. It has been established that climatic changes in Altai have a pronounced intraregional invariance: the most intense warming is recorded in the northern foothill regions, while in the highlands the changes are less pronounced. Seasonal and interannual variability increases the sense of «climate instability». The interview revealed significant differences in the level of concern of the population: from complete denial of climate change (Northeastern Altai) to high anxiety and profound transformations of economic activity (Southeastern Altai). The population is most concerned about climate change in areas where climatic conditions are initially extreme (very high annual and daily temperature ranges, pronounced aridity, and permafrost spread). Even a slight change in climate indicators is perceived by the population here as a catastrophic process. The main adaptive responses include changes in herd structure, shifting pasture cycles, abandoning traditional forms of environmental management, adjusting construction practices, and transforming agricultural systems. In some cases, adaptation is determined not by real trends, but by collective perceptions, which leads to erroneous socio-ecological strategies.

Research implications. The work contributes to the development of the theory of socio-ecological systems by demonstrating the complexity and non-linearity of climate–landscape–society relationships using the example of a mountainous region with a high natural and cultural mosaic. The practical significance lies in identifying the factors that determine the success or inefficiency of adaptation. The results can be used in the development of regional strategies for climate adaptation, environmental management planning, pasture resource management and improvement of institutional mechanisms for sustainable development of mountain areas.

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