Fire danger of the vegetation on the lands of the forest fund of the Tyva Republic in a changing climate
https://doi.org/10.18384/2712-7621-2024-1-70-85
Abstract
Aim. Assessment of wildfire hazard in the forest lands of the Tyva Republic from 2000 to 2022 based on the analysis of statistical data collected by regional executive authorities.
Procedure and methods. The work analyzed the annual data on wildfires obtained on the basis of official reports of the Ministry of Forestry and Nature Management of the Republic of Tyva, as well as the average monthly air temperatures and assessed the provision of the territory with atmospheric moisture. Fire data were obtained on the basis of forest registration cards opened during the registration of fires indicating the areas of detection and elimination of fires. This information was processed using mathematical statistics methods. Based on the geo-information analysis using the NextGISQGIS program, a spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution of the fire hazardous season (spring, summer, autumn) was carried out. The module "creation of heat maps" was used to build fire density maps.
Results. There is an increase in the duration of the warm season and the duration of dry weather in spring. In the period from 1992 to 2020. The temperature anomaly of the warm season (IV–X months) was 1.64 ± 0.16 °C. Since the 2000s the number and area of territories suffering from fires has grown, due to an increase in forest attendance by the local population and the preservation of agricultural fires in the face of progressive climate warming. Data on the actual burning of vegetation show that the cause of vegetation fires in most cases is the human factor (when collecting the gifts of nature, the rules for handling fire were not observed), and they flare up in connection with the established abnormal weather conditions.
Research implications. The study reveals that obtained results important for long-term strategy adaptation develops of ecosystems region to climate change. The significance of the work lies in the fact that the data obtained are important in the long-term development of the Fire Control Strategy and their prediction to climate change.
Supporting agencies: The author expresses gratitude to V. P. Ladygina, PhD of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (FRC KSC of the SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk). The work was carried out within the framework of the basic project Tuva Institute for Exploration of Natural Resources of the SB RAS.
About the Author
Kh. B. Kuular
Tuvinian Institute for Exploration of Natural Resources of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Khulermaa B. Kuular – PhD (Biology), Leading Researcher, Laboratory of Geoinformatics and Process Modeling
ul. Internatsionalnaya 117, Kyzyl 667007
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