Regional features of the impact of climate change on components of ecosystems of the inland seas of Europe and their coasts

Aim. Establishing the degree and nature of the impact of climate change on the abiotic and biotic components of the ecosystems of the inland seas of Europe and their coasts to improve measures for rational environmental management.

Procedure and methods. Correlation, cluster, spectral and regression methods were used to analyze long-term climatic, oceanological and commercial hydrobiological data.

Results. It has been substantiated that an increase in the intensity of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic leads to warming over the waters of the Baltic and White Seas and an increase in the volume of river runoff in the basins of these seas. At the same time, cooling and a decrease in river flow volumes in their basins can be expected over the waters of the Black and Azov Seas. In accordance with this, there is a change in the values of environmental factors that influence the biological productivity of marine organisms, in particular, commercial fish and their habitats: salinity and water temperature, the intensity of water exchange with adjacent sea areas and the concentration of dissolved oxygen at different depths. The role of anthropogenic influence on the productivity of demersal and pelagic commercial fish populations was assessed based on an analysis of fishing mortality values.

Research implications. of the study lies in the establishment and substantiation of complex cause-and-effect relationships between the dynamics of climatic, oceanological, hydrological and biotic components of marine ecosystems.

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