THE THEORY OF DETERMINISTIC CHAOS FOR THE DESCRIPTION OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND MEDICAL SYSTEM
https://doi.org/10.18384/2712-7621-2021-3-96-109
Abstract
Aim. We develop a universal model based on the theory of deterministic chaos to describe the development of the ecological and medical system (EMS). Methodology. The description of EMS using the theory of deterministic chaos assumes the already existing Feigenbaum mathematical model to be “equipped” with measurable environmental and medical values that have statistical meaning. In the environmental medical system, there are both random factors associated with the uncertainty of the level of pollution of the environment, and deterministic ones associated with ordered human activity. It is necessary to identify the random component - the law of distribution of the level of environmental pollution by concentrations of pollutants - and correlate it with the deterministic component (maximum permissible concentration), which provides a safe level of certainty. The Feigenbaum model modified for the environmental-medical system allows one to assess the current instability of EMS at a known level of environmental-medical entropy, as well as make a prediction of its development over 100 years with a change in technological load. Results. To describe EMS, new concepts of environmental-medical entropy and environmental-medical risk have been introduced. Depending on the level of environmental degradation, three fundamental periods of EMS development are identified: dynamic mode with deterministic connections of entropy and stability of the environmental-medical system; a transitional regime with two subsequent crises (bifurcations); AND a chaotic regime with rapidly recurring crises, but with the existence of a window of opportunity for the emergence of a new population. Ranking of states of ecological-medical system according to ranks of environmental degradation and instability of EMS (from absolutely stable state R=0 to absolutely chaotic R=1) is made. Examples of EMS stability change at different levels of man-made environmental load are presented. It is shown that at the level of ecological-medical entropy S≤1,1 and the level of its instability R≤0,1 the system is in the rank of normal and self-recovers over time; at 1.1
About the Authors
O. V. Bazarsky
N. E. Zhukovsky and Y. A. Gagarin Air Force Academy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Z. Yu. Kochetova
N. E. Zhukovsky and Y. A. Gagarin Air Force Academy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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